Does trade size restriction affect trading behavior? Evidence from Indian single stock futures market

Algorithmic traders use their advantage of speed to execute a large number of small-sized trades in a very short time. In the presence of a minimum trading unit (MTU) restriction, they are forced to trade at the smallest possible sizes, often restricted by the MTU. Using a novel data set of single stock futures market obtained from the National Stock Exchange of India, we show that the MTU restriction acts as a binding constraint for traders while optimizing trade sizes. Contrary to expectation, we find weak evidence that liquidity is positively impacted by the contract size revision.     

Arbitrage opportunities,liquidity provision,and trader types in an index option market

This study examines the impact of arbitrage in put–call futures parity (PCFP) violations on option market liquidity and explores the liquidity provision process by trader type during periods of arbitrage exploitation. Using a unique data set comprising the complete history of transactions, we find that PCFP violations contain toxic arbitrage opportunities. Hence, more frequent toxic arbitrage opportunities can cause liquidity to deteriorate because arbitrageurs create adverse selection costs and order imbalances in the option market. In addition, when the law of one price breaks down, market makers dominate by providing liquidity compared with individual, domestic, and foreign institutional traders.     

The untold story of commodity futures in China

We investigate the behavior of commodity futures risk premia in China. In the presence of retail-dominance and barriers-to-entry, the term structure and momentum premia remain persistent, whereas hedging pressure, skewness, volatility, and liquidity premia are distorted by time-varying margins and strict position limits. Furthermore, open interest, currency, and inflation premia are sensitive to institutional settings. The observed premia cannot be attributed to common risks, sentiment, transactions costs, or data-snooping, but are related to liquidity, anchoring, and regulation-induced limits-to-arbitrage. We highlight the distinctive features of Chinese futures markets and assess the challenges posed to theories of commodity risk premia.     

The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news

We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.     

The market quality of commodity futures markets

To study the market quality of commodity futures markets, we construct a commodity futures market quality index from the perspective of liquidity, efficiency, and volatility. Based on the market quality index, the Chinese commodity futures market operates steadily. The metal futures market is more efficient and stable than the market for agricultural futures. The Chinese commodity futures market is less liquid and more volatile than the U.S. market. We examine the determinants of market quality and find that macroeconomic variables and futures market contracts are significantly related to the market quality of Chinese commodity futures.     

Bid and ask prices of index put options: Which predicts the underlying stock returns?

In this study, we separately estimate the implied volatility from the bid and ask prices of deep out-of-the-money put options on the S&P500 index. We find that the implied volatility of ask prices has stronger predictive power for stock returns than does the implied volatility of bid prices. We identify two sources of the better performance of the ask price implied volatility: one is its stronger predictive power during economic recessions and in the presence of increasing intermediary capital risk, and the other is its richer information about the future market variance risk premium.     

Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads

This paper analyses interbank risk using the information content of basis swap (BS) spreads, floating-to-floating interest rate swaps whose payments are associated with euro deposit rates for alternative tenors. To identify the impact of shocks affecting interbank risk, we propose an empirical model that decomposes BS quotes into their expected and unexpected components. These unobservable constituents of BS spreads are estimated by solving a signal extraction problem using a particle filter. We find that expected components covariate with aggregate liquidity and risk aversion while systemic risk arises as the main driver behind unexpected fluctuations. Our empirical findings suggest that macroprudential analysis emerges as a key device to ease asset pricing in a new multi-curve scenario.     

Disentangling types of liquidity and testing limits-to-arbitrage theories in the CDS–bond basis

We disentangle asset-specific, market, and funding liquidity in the CDS–bond basis outside and during the 2007–9 global financial crisis. Our findings stress the importance of separating different types of liquidity, since all three measures have independently negative impacts on the basis. Funding liquidity emerges as the economically most important liquidity metric. While asset-specific liquidity is cross-correlated in both the cash and derivative markets, funding and market liquidity only matter for the cash market. We exploit the decomposition of the basis to test predictions of limits-to-arbitrage theories. We find strong evidence in favor of margin-based asset pricing and flight-to-quality effects.     

Gender and herding

This study uses a unique dataset from a large anonymous brokerage firm to examine the herding behavior of Chinese individual investors. The empirical evidence reveals that females are more inclined to follow the behavior of ‘same-sex’ investors. Market conditions and stock characteristics affect females and males similarly in that individual investors herd more intensively in the bull market, on stocks with better liquidity and larger market capitalization. We find female investors generally yield lower returns than males when they herd intensively, and this finding is more pronounced during a bull-market period. Outcomes from individual-level herding measurements suggest that portfolio turnover drives the difference in herding between genders.     

International stock return predictability

We propose a new methodology for predicting international stock returns. Our Bayesian framework performs probabilistic selection of predictors that can shift at multiple unknown structural break dates. The approach generates significantly more accurate forecasts of international stock returns than a range of popular models that are economically meaningful for a risk-averse mean–variance investor. Allowing for regime-specific variable selection reduces considerably the international diversification of an unhedged U.S. investor’s portfolio.